Ethiopia Fighting Against Itself

Soteras, Eduardo. 2020

Resume

Ethiopia is facing one of the most critical moments of its history with a war between the central government, in the name of prime minister Abiy Ahmed, and the region of Tigray. Million people are displaced and dozens of thousand are dead, in a crisis in the Horn of Africa.

Keywords: Ethiopia; Tigray; Crisis.

Fighting against a communist military government, political groups of Ethiopia formed a political coalition, led by the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF), which took up power in 1991 (BBC, 2021; DAHIR; WALSH, 2021). Tigray is one of the majority ethnic groups, representing almost 7% of the population (BBC, 2021).

The project of the government of that coalition was a model with a weak central government, granting autonomy for each ethnic group in ethnic federalism - a nomenclature used by Mohammad Girma (DAHIR; WALSH, 2021).

The coalition government was a dictatorship (BROOKE-HOLLAND, 2021). It granted stability and relative economic growth, but, with a high price in terms of human rights, defying the legitimacy of the coalition, in a growing movement that called for changes (BROOKE- HOLLAND, 2021).

Massive repression of opposition occurred, with arbitrary prisons, illegal judgments, summary executions, persecution of criticizers, no media freedom (BBC, 2021). Looking for reform in the Ethiopian state, most Ethiopian people took to the streets in 2018 (BBC, 2021).

In 2018, Abiy Ahmed emerged as the name that would consolidate the people's demands, is a powerful rhetoric of democracy and change (BBC, 2021). Abiy Ahmed is part of the Oromo ethnic group, which is the most expressive in Ethiopia, with 36% of the population, although the ethnicity never ruled the country (BUSARI; GETACHEW; SEVENZO, 2021). Abiy Ahmed has a long political career, reaching its peak when he assumed the minister's role of Ethiopia, in a movement that symbolizes a rupture with a complex political and ethnic issue that characterizes the country (BUSARI; GETACHEW; SEVENZO, 2021).

At the beginning of his term, Abiy set free some political prisoners, such as opponents of the old coalition and journalists. That were being tortured, losing their rights as citizens and human beings (BUSARI; GETACHEW; SEVENZO, 2021). Besides that, he tried to liberalize the country, supporting the privatization of the media and some economic sectors, attracting investments. Furthermore, Ahmed ordered arresting over a million and a half due to corruption and illegal practices (BBC, 2021). But the most crucial act of the prime minister was the peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Eritrea is a country in the north of Ethiopia, which has been under the dictatorship of Isaias Afewerki since 1993 (BBC, 2021; BROOKE-HOLLAND, 2021). Ethiopia and Eritrea were in a total war between 1998 and 2002 due to the border and ethnic issues, being one of the bloodiest wars of the region, despite massive expenses with defense equipment and military contingent (BROOKE-HOLLAND, 2021). The poverty in both countries increased considerably, resulting in several humanitarian crises in the region, displacing millions of people and leaving dozens of thousands of deaths. (BBC, 2021; BROOKE HOLLAND, 2021).

In 2018, Abiy Mahmed and Isaias Aferwerki reached a peace agreement, discontinuing a war that lasted more than two decades (DAHIR; WALSH, 2021). The act made the president receive the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, creating great expectations about the prime minister of Ethiopia, making the world watch his actions closely and the future of one of the most important countries of Africa (DAHIR; WALSH, 2021). What happened in Ethiopia - political openness, with the freedom of many political prisoners and the peace agreement with Eritrea- is not a common movement in Africa and much less in the Horn of Africa, marked by authoritarian governments (BUSARI; GETACHEW, SEVENZO, 2021).

To fulfill his proposals, Mahmed needed to centralize his power, going against the consolidated ethnos federalism, that is, the autonomy of the ethnic regions was reduced for his proposals of general liberalization, pressing politically the regions for his purposes (DAHIR; WALSH, 2021). It was high-risk politics, but Ahmed was counting on the fact that his ethnic group is the majority and has more assets in the parliament (DAHIR; WALSH, 2021). However, the force of Ethnic Federalism tends to always prevail against any attempt to centralize (DAHIR; WALSH, 2021).

Each region has its conflict, in a complex dynamic of ethnic, economic, and political reasons (BROOKE-HOLLAND, 2021). The Tigray region, due to the reduction of its political influence since Mahmed became the prime minister, is, currently, the most critical point of the country (BROOKE-HOLLAND, 2021). The centralization and the criticism of the previous coalition are the main reasons for the tension between the central government and the Tigray region (BROOKE-HOLLAND, 2021).

In September of the past year, there should have been regional elections in the country, although, because of the COVID-19 pandemics, the elections were postponed without a definitive date (BBC, 2021). The TPLF accused the government of Ahmed as illegitimate, as it has not been tested in the ballot boxes (BBC, 2021). Therefore, against the central government order, in November, the Tigray region decided to push ahead with regional elections, in a crisis of governance (BBC, 2021). The central government declared 6 months of the state of emergency in the region (BBC, 2021).

The central parliament gave the ultimatum: if the regional power of Tigray did not stop its acts against the central authority, all the resources that should be designated to the region would be cut (INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP, 2021). The TPLF understood that as a declaration of war, creating the Tigray Defense Force (TDF), with a great capacity of mobilization and equipment to fight a war (BBC, 2021; DAHIR; WALSH, 2021). More than this, Tigray’s military forces invaded some central government’s military bases, beginning, in fact, a war inside of Ethiopia (DAHIR; WALSH, 2021).

Ahmed’s first step in the war was to cut access to the internet and all the media (INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP, 2021). At first, the central government was sure that it would be an incisive, effective, and quick military offensive (DAHIR; WALSH, 2021). It must be pointed out that the central government received military support from the Eritreans, demonstrating the good relations between Ahmed and Isaias, and from the Amhara militia, from the region south of Tigray (DAHIR; WALSH, 2021). Even after taking the capital of the

Tigray region, Mekele, the TDF kept fighting consistently against the central military forces, in a conflict that is lasting more than a half year (INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP, 2021).

The conflict generated more than 4 million people who fled from their houses to find a safe place, despite dozens of thousands of deaths, in several humanitarian crises (INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP, 2021). In addition, hunger spread in the region, with thousands of people starving, and, more than this, has been related to the use of starving as a war weapon, in what could be the worst hunger in Africa since 2011 (BROOKE-HOLLAND, 2021; INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP, 2021). The external military forces from Eritrea are being accused of extreme violence, raping thousands of people, executing summarily and many other atrocities (BROOKE-HOLLAND, 2021; INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP, 2021). Furthermore, humanitarian aid did not have free access in the zone of conflict, in a clear attempt to deny help to the opposite side. (BROOKE-HOLLAND, 2021; INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP, 2021).

The international community fears that the war in Ethiopia destabilizes a region that already has several issues. In Somalia, for example, Ethiopia has a lot of military forces in a peacekeeping mission in the country, but, due to the conflict with Tigray, much of the forces had to go to their country to fight by the side of the central government (BBC, 2021; DAHIR; WALSH, 2021). This could get worse with Somalia's civil war, which already lasts 30 years, in a bloody humanitarian crisis that needs help (BBC, 2021).

The international community claims for the end of the conflict and the dialogue between the parts of Ethiopia's crisis (BROOKE-HOLLAND, 2021). China sees the conflict as a problem to the Belt and Road Initiative, in which the Asian giant intends to create a multi-continental route that connects Asia, Africa, Medium East, and Europe, in a great economic dynamic to the economical purposes of China (PAUTASSO, 2016). The Horn of Africa is important to the Belt and Road Initiative, due to its strategic position close to the Medium East, in an important maritime route to the Suez Canal, one of the most important to world commerce (PAUTASSO, 2016). In an official announcement, China asked for the stabilization of the country.

On June 28th, the central government declared a unilateral ceasefire for humanitarian reasons after the Tigrayans rebels took up Mekelle (AL JAZEERA, 2021). The TDF kept his offensive to dominate Tigray and adjacencies (AL JAZEERA, 2021). Until now, there are no signals that the war is about to end, even with the international pressure to stop the conflict. Even with the dazzle of democracy, Ethiopia is challenging with “models of power” inside of its country. Thus, more than ethnic questions are projects of power to the whole country that affect the lives of millions of people displaced and dozens of thousand dead.

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